CHANG: Well, to explain exactly what it means to flatten the curve of infectious diseases, we're joined now by Dr. Drew Harris. Even if you are young and otherwise healthy, you are at riskand your activities can increase the risk of contracting the Coronavirus for others. Well find out. Mina agreed: Without a very clear signal coming from our government at the national level, its really just like a small trickle as people start to recognize that this is happening.. In case 5% of the infections need IC (intensive care), the maximum number of infections our health care can handle is app. "If everyone makes this change or these critical changes and sacrifices now, we will rally together as one nation and we will defeat the virus and we're going to have a big celebration all together," Trump said at a White House press briefing on March 16, 2020, where he also announced the first vaccine candidate entering phase 1 clinical trials. That argument has been counterproductive, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHOs health emergencies program, said Monday. So maybe its time to revive flatten the curve. Maybe emphasizing that the rampant spread of the virus means a strain on hospitals and, crucially, on health-care workers will serve as an incentive for people to take steps such as masking that would prevent their mild infection from spreading to other people. This is the type of rhetoric that always lead to a two-tiered society in which the dehumanized sect suffers immensely under the authoritarians. If you look at the curves of outbreaks, they go big peaks, and then come down. Morrato said social-distancing efforts in other countries could offer clues as to how long Americans should remain isolated from one another. Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci holds up the "15 Days to Slow the Spread" instruction as U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a news briefing on the latest development of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. at the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House March 20, 2020 in Washington, DC. Businesses and occupations were divided into essential and non-essential, with the non-essentials closing their doors many for good. DeSantis critical of China, hazy on Ukraine as he charts foreign policy path. "I don't think there's a chance of that.". Stay up to date with what you want to know. What has happened to this country? Look how safe the government is keeping their citizens. The recent emergence of the quick-spreading omicron variant combined with some initial reports suggesting that it may be less dangerous than the original variant reports that have been disputed have reintroduced the idea that containment measures be loosened to allow it to spread. We submitted to weird forehead zaps to check our temperature. For the latest coronavirus case total and death toll, see. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories, The Trump administration has released a 15-day plan to, The plan involves asking healthy Americans to avoiding social gatherings and. This story first appeared in 1600 Daily, the White Houses evening newsletter. "Truly, for many of us in public health, this was a red flag an indication that the administration had an unrealistic view of pandemic control measures and was not aware of the reality a pandemic cannot be solved in 15 days and any strategy needs to include a serious amount of work resource, and personnel," she added. That's because confirmed cases give a clearer picture of how people become infected and for how long. Statement From Roger Stone In Response To The January 6th Committee. Now, after their policies have failed, they need someone to blame. A version of the chart and the phrase flatten the curve first appeared in a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about ways to control the Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Biden then went on to encourage children to stay away from the unvaccinated, further stoking hatred, fear, and divide. But we were right that flooding hospitals with preventable illness was not helpful. A large number of people becoming very sick over the course of a few days could overwhelm a hospital or care facility. Federal guidelines advise that states wait until they experience a downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period before proceeding to a phased opening. "And of course, the rest is history. Mina said the lack of evidence of widespread transmission in the country may be making people feel any aggressive step right now may be an overreaction. Trump's 15-day plan to slow the coronavirus' spread is too short, experts say. And on June 22, aHarvard University studyreiterated the fact that while this policy did not save lives it decimated the economy; while modern robber barons such as Zuckerberg, Gates, and Bezos saw their portfolios expand exponentially. The WHO has failed in their lack of guts to make tough decisions, theyve been on the potty squaking about global Angst instead. Li says that the timing of the survey during a summer surge in cases and the ubiquity of both the flatten the curve message and social distancing measures make it difficult to determine the true effect of the infographic. Several studies have shown that the lockdowns were not effective at stopping the virus. The preferred political solution lies in both continuing to encourage social distancing and in prohibiting larger gatherings. What we need to do is flatten that down, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters Tuesday. That is just not the case. But the quarantines, unprecedented in modern times, appear to have prevented explosive outbreaks from occurring in cities outside of Hubei province, where Wuhan is located. PCR testing and some straightforward assumptions indicate that, as of April 29, 2020, more than half a million people in Stockholm county, Sweden, which is about 2025% of the population, have been infected (Hansson D, Swedish Public Health Agency, personal communication). "The thing we were worried about was going to kill a giant portion of our population A half a million Americans have died with COVID, and yeah, it's a tragedy, but what is more of a tragedy is that there is not an emphasis on keeping people healthy. Who knows, maybe it will save a lot of lives.. Dr. Oxiris Barbot the former New York City health chief who led the Big Apple through the beginning of the pandemic when the state was seeing almost 1,000 daily deaths told CNBC it was apparent by late February that the coronavirus had the potential to become catastrophic. Helen Branswell covers issues broadly related to infectious diseases, including outbreaks, preparedness, research, and vaccine development. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-march-15-31-2020-critical-time-contain-covid-19-us-khvatkov/, We went from almost no lockdowns to daily lockdowns: The mental health crisis inside California womens prisons. All Rights Reserved. Until then, only minimal essential activities will be allowed. Surgeon General (March 2020) On March 16, 2020, one year ago today, President Donald Trump announced a fifteen-day effort to "slow the spread" of COVID-19. That is what the curve represents. This meme trend came few days ago and is now flooded over social media. The notion that the curve of this outbreak could be flattened began to gain credence after China took the extraordinary step of locking down tens of millions of One of the most heavily vaccinated places on the planet, withthestrictest vaccine mandates in the country, New York City, accounted for nearly 10% of all cases in the U.S. Political Prankster Trolls City Council Dressed as Furry to Call Out Trans Lunacy, Alex Jones Joins Steven Crowder After $1 billion Sandy Hook Verdict This Means War!, The Inside Scoop Behind The Push To Make Trump Speaker Of The House, AOC Humiliated At Town Hall In Viral Clip: Why Cant You Be More Like Tulsi Gabbard?, Revolver Founder Darren Beattie on Jones Verdict: The Cost of Free Speech is One BILLION Dollars. Every Sunday at 11:00am EST/New York. Reporting from the frontiers of health and medicine, You've been selected! WebThe first case of COVID-19 in Germany was reported 987 days ago on January 26, 2020. Taiwan* New cases confirmed each day (7-day-average) down The first case of COVID-19 in Taiwan* was reported 992 days ago on January 21, 2020. This is the real pandemic, but it goes on beneath the surface, and is probably at its peak now in many European countries. "As soon as you can reliably test in a number of locations, you begin to get data that helps you decide the next step," Amler told Business Insider. Some public-health experts say enforcing social distancing for the next week won't be enough to "flatten the curve" in other words, to slow the rate at which people get infected so hospitals aren't overwhelmed. We dont want to go that route, Rivers told STAT. Please use your own discernment when reading the content shared on this website. We experienced two mini-peaks - one in the Spring and one in the Summer - rather than one massive peak in the Spring. You would think between growing herd immunity and the deployment of three vaccines, unnecessary nanny state regulations on individuals and businesses would start to diminish, and in some places they certainly have. This article was published more than1 year ago. So its the top priority right now that we bend the curve.. She added that failings by the federal government to prioritize the testing of large parts of the population was one of the earliest missteps. The 7-day average daily number of positive cases fell from 1,906 on Aug. 13 to 1,859 on Aug. 16. We were wrong about Purell. ", "I cannot see that all of a sudden, next week or two weeks from now, it's going to be over," he said in an interview with the Today show. A massive, unprecedented nationwide response. "There were two key elements in our scientific knowledge that we didn't fully understand. In one of her first public appearances since leaving her role in the White House, Birx said there were doctors "from credible universities who came to the White House with these opposite opinions.". BR But as for the non-vaccinated, I really want to piss them off. None of it made much difference against the virus, it turned out. Follow her on Mastodon and Post News. Also in June, TFTP covered the findings of anMIT scientist who reporteda data analysis of the economic impact of the lockdown noting that whilst it played a key contributing role to the sharp rise of unemployment, it did not make a significant reduction in deaths. The emphasis is only on social distance, wear three masks, and wait for a vaccine." How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Please tell us about your experience. Notably, the 15-day guidance made no mention of who should seek out testing and under what circumstances. Although the most popular versions removed messages about reducing the overall case numbers of COVID-19, their focus on protecting hospital capacity seemed to connect strongly with people who could envision their local hospitals filling up. A website maintained by Johns Hopkins University which is considered the go-to website for Covid-19 statistics scrapes data from a variety of sources. That means that we know we should be doing it. Subscribe nowto get breaking news from President Trump before anyone else. So parents are supposed to keep their kids away from the other 85.3% of 5 to 11-year olds??? The fear mongering is just going to ramp up as the weeks go on. Let's hope our government has learned that lesson as we move into year two. That would ultimately have less deaths. Any delay means more people will die. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Friday that social distancing would likely have to continue for "several weeks. This could last eighteen months, or two years, or more. What did come, however, was a slew of arbitrary and oftenridiculous mandatesand decrees from politicians who think that government force can stop a pandemic. I know thats dreadful news to hear. The message took off. Search interest in the term plateaued at the end of May 2020 and then basically stopped after that August. Digital Millennium Copyright Act Notice While many folks, including those in government, have begun to open their eyes to the data and realize that locking people in their homes, shutting down society, and forcibly medicating people against their will does not stop Covid, others are still pressing on. Two weeks to flatten the curve turned into months of restrictions, which have turned into nearly 365 days of mask-wearing, hand-washing and worries about By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider We want to hear from you. This excerpt sums it up nicely: "Telling Americans to wear masks when theyre unnecessary undermines efforts to persuade more people to wear masks where they are vital Banning college students from outdoor walks wont make them stay inside their dorm rooms for weeks on end. So in July and August of 2020, they surveyed a representative sample of 500 American adults and asked them if they had ever seen the chart. That they now portray to affirm what they have been saying all along is the pinnacle of cowardish babble. It suggested late Tuesday afternoon that there had been 808 cases in the U.S. and 28 deaths. For weeks, a debate has raged about whether the virus could be contained an approach the WHO has been exhorting countries to focus on or whether it made more sense to simply try to lessen the virus blow, an approach known as mitigation.. when did 14 days to flatten the curve start. Its time we act that way. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures? The Energies of May 2023: Conscious Creation, The Federation of Light: Potential of Miracles, Conversations with Kuthumi: Dancing with Your Shadow, Archangel Zadkiel: The Power of the Present Moment, The Godfather of AI Says Doomsayers Are Wrong and ChatGPT Isnt Remarkable Mainly an Advanced Disinformation Tool, The Number Of Jailed Journalists Reaches Record High, 500 Australians Join Worlds First COVID Vaccine Injury Class Action Lawsuit, Argorians Update: Frequencies to Increase, The 9D Arcturian Council: Make All Your Problems Melt Away. Together, these setbacks could lengthen the amount of time that Americans are told to stay at home. She added that early on, officials should have acted more swiftly when cases were detected to prevent spread through the closure of businesses. Chan School of Public Health have looked at what U.S. hospitals might endure if Wuhan-scale spread occurred in this country. I would suggest that people not underestimate how effective the chart was based on this finding alone, because the popularity of this chart itself is strong evidence of how important the message was and how critical it is for scientists to send the right message out about something like this, she says. The director of the WHOs health emergencies programme said on Wednesday there was a perception that Sweden had not done enough to contain coronavirus, but nothing could be further from the truth. Alessandro Vespignani, director of the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University, is gravely worried about what hes hearing from contacts in Italy, where people initially played down the outbreak as a kind of flu, he said. And fewer people in the hospital meant not only fewer people dying from covid-19 but less risk that hospitals would be unable to care for other, non-covid patients. Its really all borne out of the risk of our health care infrastructure pulling apart at the seams if the virus spreads too quickly and too many people start showing up at the emergency room at any given time.. 700 Days Into 14 Days To Flatten The Curve And The Only Thing Thats Reduced Is Your Freedom. Clearly we can no longer rely on them to make decisions which benefit freedom and liberty. That is nothing if not intuitive, of course; someone sick with covid is necessarily going to increase the percentage of beds in use. The WHO now endorses the Swedish model, which isbased on increasing healthcare capacity while relying primarily on voluntary social distancing. Our government in the Netherlands is basing their strategy completely on the above model, and Im convinced it will be a disaster. "Swabs could be a weak link in broadening testing," former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb tweeted on March 16. Should we be canceling classes? We are all wondering if our actions are melodramatic. In a tweet on Sunday, President Trump suggested there should be a limit to how long social distancing can reasonably be enforced. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken. Many experts at the time said it would have been impossible to slow a rapidly transmitting respiratory infection by effectively shutting down enormous cities and possibly counterproductive. The answer for many is no for a variety of reasons. Thestudy from the NBERfound that these restrictions not only failed to save lives, and greatly exacerbated the destruction of the working class but have in fact resulted in anincreaseof excess mortality. Hes not convinced that people in the United States comprehend whats coming. That was the argument: Stay healthy, keep the hospitals from being overloaded. If a hospital is overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases, patients will have a lower chance of surviving than they would if they became ill when the hospitals patient load was more manageable. Despite the snark now, if the goal of American health authorities in March 2020 was to flatten the curve, then they were successful. When the pandemic began, no one knew anything. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its approach could be a model for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. The curve of the Philippines as of Sept. 9, 2020 looks like this: After the lockdown was initiated, the curve remained relatively flat until the end of May, after which it started to increase exponentially. Early on, we were told one of the most challenging aspects of COVID-19 was that individuals could spread the virus even if they showed no symptoms. Predictably, they have ramped up the scapegoating of the unvaccinated. 60%). Much of this spike can be attributed to increased testing capacity at private and state laboratories. The idea is that gradually al large part of the population has to become immune (app. Some simple math offers alarming answers, U.S. communities are braced for coronavirus outbreaks. Those who even questioned the efficacy of shutting down the world were called insensitive and told they were "going to kill grandma." Tags: Gottlieb: Europe's rise in Covid cases isn't predictive of U.S. trajectory, announced his administration's "15 days to slow the spread" campaign, acknowledged the outbreak could extend beyond the summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, took a couple of private sector positions. More than 70% of respondents said they were very likely to engage in social distancing, while about 40% thought that the pandemic could be brought under control with these interventions. The data is being closely watched We are supposed to applaud the notion that if we behave the government will grant us rights we already have five months from now? contact-us@uc.wisc.edu, 2023 Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System, DOWNLOAD IMAGE: https://uwmadison.box.com/v/flatten-curve, CDC / The Economist / Drew Harris / Nan Li, a 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, The Economist printed a modified version of the chart, Drew Harris adapted The Economists chart to share on Twitter, Survey: Many still find it hard to stay home during pandemic, worry about mental health during isolation, Public Health Madison & Dane County releases new orders requiring face coverings, UW experts design masks for campus from scratch, https://uwmadison.box.com/v/flatten-curve. If tough containment worked for China and South Korea, then so should it also for the rest of the world. 1600 Daily is the White Houses evening newsletter. 2022 NewsWars Neither of those things has happened, yet governments have already begun to significantly loosen lockdowns. But it increasingly seems that such a scenario is wishful thinking. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. But it probably will increase the chances that they surreptitiously gather indoors Rules that are really more about showing that youre doing something versus doing something thats actually effective are counterproductive." Everyone who can telecommute should be required to do so. If you appreciate what we do, please support us. And with it went the idea of flattening the curve. And even then, there will need to be COVID passports and official freedom-to-work documents issued by governments. Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19. "There should've been earlier shutdowns," Barbot said. Even if we are not headed to zero transmission, any cases that we can prevent and any transmission that we can avoid are going to have enormous impact, she said. Needless to say, such a situation is unlikely to happen any time thats soon enough to save Hawaii from an economic implosion. Countries were closing borders, the stock market was cratering and Trump in what proved to be prescient remarks acknowledged the outbreak could extend beyond the summer. Are you a health care worker affected by the coronavirus outbreak? So, we must keep society locked down indefinitely until a vaccine is found or until there can be enough testing and tracking of infections among the entire population. CDC / The Economist / Drew Harris / Nan Li, Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, one message became ubiquitous: flatten the curve.. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. For questions, feedback, and suggestions you can email us: EraofLightblog@Gmail.com. The website is no longer updated and links to external websites and some internal pages may not work. "In retrospect, I do think in February there were a significant number of undetected infections taking place, and we were scrambling to try and identify them.". https://t.co/nTz6UMX8yL, Matt Agorist (@MattAgorist) January 2, 2022. That was 663 days ago. Those measures include banning concerts, sporting events, and other mass gatherings, closing movie theaters, telling people who can telecommute to work from home, and potentially closing schools. Again, weve seen that increases in coronavirus infections have, in fact, strained intensive care units since the pandemic began. Flattening the curve could take at least several more weeks. state and local government budgets cratered. The best defense against covid-19 are dog maulings and baton blows, multiple fact checkers say. The arrival of omicron as winter nears has led to a surge in new cases around the globe and in the United States, including in better-vaccinated states. Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said any lessening of spread will help health systems remain functional. And South Korea, which has had the third largest outbreak outside of China, also appears to be beating back transmission through aggressive actions. Although we didnt see a difference in peoples ideas or behavioral intentions based on their awareness of the chart, the message is still beneficial because theres some evidence that it allowed people to form a more informed decision without relying on trust.. It is time Americans and the rest of the world realize that freedom is not some commodity to be traded in exchange for our obedience. "It is fair to say, some form of social distancing will be required until we have a vaccine or effective treatment identified," Morrato said. The next two weeks will be "absolutely critical" for containing the virus, Elaine Morrato, dean of the Parkinson School of Health Sciences and Public Health at Loyola University Chicago, told Business Insider. We adapt to our new and improved circumstances and then lower the bar for what we count as intolerable levels of discomfort and risk." The purpose and intent of this is anchoring higher light and activating the Ascension Timeline on Earth now. This was yet another report, as TFTPs Don Via Jr. pointed out, that much like the aforementioned, didnotreceive national headlines from the corporate media. The shade of the colors indicates the size of each states growth or decline in new cases; the darker the shade, the bigger the change. Tied to a compelling, simple chart of infections over time with and without interventions, the message encouraged people to socially distance to delay and reduce the peak of infections, preventing hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. The degree to which we have allowed the government to unilaterally bring our economy and lives to a halt without due process and input from the general public is unacceptable.
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